China's cobalt metal output rose 11.02% month-on-month to 655 mt in August 2026, driven by higher production at a leading smelter and the restart of a previously suspended producer, though the figure remains down 68.28% year-on-year and cumulative January–August output has fallen nearly 90% compared with the prior year. The leading smelter accounts for roughly 70% of total domestic output, meaning individual producer scheduling decisions carry outsized influence on monthly supply; September output is forecast to rise a further 10% MoM as that smelter maintains elevated operating rates and the restarted facility stabilises.

Spot cobalt metal prices fell approximately 11.7% across August, declining from around 345,500 yuan/mt at the month's start to roughly 305,000 yuan/mt by month-end, with the monthly average down 12.6% from July. Across the broader industry chain, the upstream-downstream price standoff persisted this week, with mainstream smelters holding ex-works refined cobalt at 310,000 yuan/mt while downstream buyers, still returning from summer breaks, confined purchases to rigid restocking needs. An overseas miner's decision to acquire low-priced intermediates at $16/lb sent a price-floor signal that briefly lifted electronic trading prices above 300,000 yuan/mt from around 290,000 yuan/mt, though most miners continue to target above $20/lb while downstream buyers anchor to $15–18/lb, leaving the bid-ask spread wide and recent tenders largely failed.

In the cobalt sulphate segment, low-priced Indonesian material transacting at 63,000 yuan/mt established a downside anchor for downstream purchase targets, while MHP cobalt payables retreating to roughly 70% pulled spot production costs to approximately 69,000 yuan/mt, eroding cost support. Producers are quoting firm at 70,000 yuan/mt but have indicated willingness to sell at 65,000–68,000 yuan/mt on clear purchase interest. With the September–October peak season approaching, prices are expected to gradually stop falling in late August to early September, though a sustained recovery requires evidence of concentrated downstream purchasing.

On the project development front, Nord Precious Metals Mining has completed a conceptual open-pit assessment at the Castle East area of its Castle property near Gowganda, Ontario, evaluating the potential for broader, lower-grade near-surface silver-cobalt-gold mineralization around historic mine workings. The study, executed by Norda Stelo Inc. through Laurentia Exploration Inc., drew on a geological model incorporating more than 75,000 metres of drill data and 29 modelled vein structures reviewed in 2025. Next steps include data validation and domain refinement for silver, cobalt, and gold zones separately, followed by prioritisation of shallow targets and follow-up drilling subject to financing and permitting. The study does not establish a mineral resource, reserve, or economic assessment.

The dominant development of the period is the binding LG Energy Solution offtake signed by Smackover Lithium — the Standard Lithium and Equinor joint venture — for 8,000 metric tonnes per year of battery-quality lithium carbonate over ten years beginning in 2029, valued at an estimated $1.5 billion over ten years from the South West Arkansas Project. The material will be produced via direct lithium extraction technology and is structured to meet US Foreign Entity of Concern requirements, supporting LG's eligibility for Inflation Reduction Act benefits across its eight North American production facilities. Combined with the previously announced Trafigura agreement for 8,000 tonnes annually signed in March, the two deals now cover roughly 90% of targeted SWA output, with Smackover Lithium still in discussions on one additional smaller contract. Standard Lithium's CEO indicated the commitments advance the project's financing plans, including more than $1 billion in indications of interest from three Export Credit Agencies, with a Final Investment Decision targeted this year and commercial production expected in 2029. Standard Lithium shares rose 2% on the announcement, as noted in early trading reports. LG's broader diversified sourcing strategy also encompasses a 100,000-tonne agreement with SQM and a 1.75-million-tonne lithium concentrate deal with Australia's Liontown.

On the supply side, workers at Albemarle's Chile operations voted to launch a strike beginning September 2, threatening disruptions at one of the world's largest lithium sources. The threatened stoppage comes as the broader lithium market is tightening: major Chinese producers Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium each reported strongest profits in three years for the first half of 2026, with China's spot price surging 22% over that period. Albemarle separately reported that global lithium demand rose 45% year-over-year through May, outpacing supply growth, while Australia's Pilbara Minerals swung to a A$526 million profit and Zijin Mining flagged room for further price increases. Chile's SQM raised its production guidance, and Chengxin Lithium unveiled plans to spend more than $476 million on lithium-sulfate plants in Zimbabwe and Nigeria. UBS, however, downgraded its longer-term lithium price forecast by 5–35%, projecting the market will flip to surplus from 2027 as supply growth accelerates.

On the technology front, Asahi Kasei announced a pre-lithiation process using lithium carbonate for silicon-graphite anodes, claiming a 10% improvement in energy density in NMC cells with 90% graphite and 10% silicon monoxide anodes, along with improved cycle stability and lower cost per watt-hour; the company plans proof-of-concept projects with customers and subsequent commercialization through licensing, while simultaneously having opened a new separator coating line in North Carolina. Separately, researchers at Nagoya University identified the conductivity mechanism behind the oxyfluoride solid electrolyte LLNOF and, by adjusting its composition, achieved a record 16.3 mS/cm bulk conductivity among oxide-related solid electrolytes at room temperature, a potential pathway toward safer solid-state lithium-ion batteries. New Mexico's Molten Salt Solutions closed a $7 million seed round for lithium-isotope enrichment technology targeting lithium-6 for fusion reactors and lithium-7 for molten salt fission reactors, bringing total disclosed funding to more than $15 million; the company describes its platform as 100 times more efficient than legacy enrichment approaches.

In exploration, Bradda Head Lithium reported that its third and final phase of 2026 rock-chip sampling at the Whistlejacket Project returned surface assays up to 3.90% Li₂O, with 46.3% of the 41 rock samples grading above 0.50% Li₂O and geochemical signatures consistent with a well-fractionated LCT pegmatite system; the company has now transitioned to a Phase 3 drilling programme to test continuity and scale at depth. Deep Source Holdings (Theme International) reported a 49% year-over-year revenue increase to HK$14.96 billion with net profit of HK$513.4 million and announced a strategic pivot toward the lithium value chain and AI infrastructure. On fire safety, a charging battery ignited a garage fire in Jensen Beach, Florida, displacing two residents and a dog, while Charlotte, North Carolina firefighters highlighted thermal runaway risks from leaf blower batteries following a separate residential fire, with both incidents prompting renewed emphasis on safe charging practices.

No significant news today on this issue. Check back tomorrow!

Washington's effort to formalise rare earth cooperation with Brazil has stalled: a senior US embassy official disclosed at the Exposibram mining conference in Belo Horizonte that two US overtures went unanswered, including an invitation to the Minerals Security Partnership and a draft framework agreement sent in February, with no bilateral deal expected before Brazil's October presidential election. Against that diplomatic backdrop, USA Rare Earth's US$2.8 billion Serra Verde acquisition is nevertheless days from closing pending a Friday shareholder vote, backed by a US$1.55 billion investment structure combining a US$750 million Department of War commitment, a US$300 million Defense Logistics Agency purchase pledge, and US$500 million in bank financing — a 15-year offtake arrangement covering the full output of Serra Verde's Pela Ema mine in Goiás, the only operation outside Asia producing all four magnetic rare earth elements. The deal's Pentagon framing has drawn scrutiny, with critics noting that the same minerals powering wind turbines are being incorporated into what officials explicitly describe as a "fundamental warfighting requirement" for next-generation weapons systems. Pela Ema's existing ten-year supply contracts with Chinese processors were renegotiated last December, cutting nearly eight years from those commitments, even as Beijing placed USA Rare Earth on its export control list on June 22 alongside MP Materials and eight other American firms in retaliation for US entity-list expansions.

At the project level, MP Materials reported an 89% revenue increase to $108.5 million in the second quarter of 2026, with NdPr output rising 41% year-over-year to 840 metric tons, and management guiding Q3 NdPr production above 1,000 metric tons; the company delivered magnets to General Motors for in-vehicle qualification testing and targets commercial shipments in Q4, while also signing a multiyear gadolinium oxide agreement with a US aerospace and defense manufacturer and remaining on track to add terbium and dysprosium production later this year. Development-stage NioCorp, advancing the Elk Creek project in Nebraska with a market capitalisation of roughly $600 million, presents a broader critical-minerals product mix but carries substantial financing and execution risk relative to MP's integrated, operational platform.

In Canada, Defense Metals reported re

Almonty Industries authorised a $300 million share repurchase covering up to 14.4 million common shares over 36 months, citing market undervaluation after Q2 2026 revenue surged to C$43.0 million — a 498% year-over-year increase driven almost entirely by its Portuguese Panasqueira mine — and net income swung to C$181.8 million from a prior-year loss of C$58.2 million, with the company holding C$1.2 billion in cash; a contract extension with Global Tungsten & Powders to 21 years and a 40% volume increase to 4.41 million metric ton units contributed to a 96% year-to-date share gain, though the stock sits roughly a quarter below its April 52-week high. Separately, Standard Lithium secured a second offtake deal with LG Energy Solution for 8,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually for ten years from the Smackover joint venture, bringing secured offtake to roughly 90% of target volume. Arafura Rare Earths reached final investment decision on Nolans in May, clearing the project's primary development overhang, though its shares remain down 15% year-to-date as investors continue to price in the financing phase.

A peer-reviewed study published in Earth Science, Systems and Society estimated that waste streams from Alberta's Athabasca Oil Sands Region contain 31,600 tonnes of rare earth elements annually in froth treatment tailings, alongside approximately 730,000 tonnes of titanium and 609,000 tonnes of zircon, while the petroleum coke inventory — which reached 184 million tonnes by end-2025 — holds an estimated 201,000 tonnes of vanadium and 66,800 tonnes of nickel; researchers cautioned that stable porphyrin complexes and complex mineralogy mean economically viable recovery will require substantial further technological development. A sustainability conference separately featured proposals for recycled rare-earth metals alongside flexible data centres and methane-derived fuels as pathways toward lower-impact critical-minerals use.