POLICYINTELPRO
November 5, 2026
THE BIG STORY
Critical Minerals Policy is an island of bipartisanship.
But technical policy choices during 2027-28 will create near-term challenges for the sector.
Voters may have swung Congress and state leadership positions to the left, but the macro trend towards diversified supply chains will not shift. Sectoral market pressures are more likely from short-term supply dislocations and medium-term global policy decisions.
10-15%
ANNUAL ESTIMATED GLOBAL DEMAND GROWTH FOR CRITICAL MINERALS 2026-2030
25
PAX SILICA SIGNATORIES
(as of 5 Nov 2026)
Initial post-election policy trajectory estimates
Issue | Today | Expected Change |
|---|---|---|
Data Centers | rapid growth | ▼ Legislation to curb development expected |
Permitting Reform | bipartisan consensus | ▲ but expect drama as faster permits collide with environmental standards |
Electric Vehicles | stalemate | — Without the ability to override a veto, Congress cannot resurrect EV subsidies |
Pax Silica | bipartisan consensus | ▲ no meaningful opposition to the Pax Siilca has yet been articulated by Congressional Democrats; bipartisan consensus prioritizes diversification from China. |
Key Issues to Watch
Demand Drivers — Advanced Tech and Green Agendas. Policy decisions in advanced economies concerning data centers, electric vehicles, electrification, and AI infrastructure/quantum computing materially impact critical minerals demand.
Supply Drivers - Permitting Reform. For countries with critical minerals resources (e.g., US, Canada, Argentina, Australia, Chile, Brazil, South Africa, Guina, DRC, Zimbabwe) streamlined permitting processes and environmental requirements can materially impact whether and how new sources of supply can meet growing global demand.
Geopolitics. Supply chain diversification away from China using the Pax Silica framework in addition to bilateral trade & investment arrangements will define resource flows for the foreseeable future.
Ideological cross-currents. Policy regarding critical minerals do not easily fit within ideological constructs. Right-leaning governments take equity stakes in private companies. Green and left-leaning governments must balance electrification priorities with carbon emissions associated with extractive industries. Populist resource nationalism agendas can amplify or impede cross-border geopolitical agreements.
Market conundrums. Steadily increased demand does not always translate into enhanced revenue prospects given the costs of extraction, processing, and transportation. Policy time horizons and market time horizons may diverge across holding periods, increasingly the need to acquire solid data regarding policy trends and trajectories.
POLICY TRAJECTORIES AND MARKET REACTION FUNCTIONS WILL NOT BE LINEAR EVEN WHEN AGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE NEED TO CREATE MORE EXTENSIVE, DIVERSIFIED SUPPLY CHAINS.
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